Integrated Hydrology and Operations Modeling to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts in an Agricultural Valley Irrigated With Snowmelt Runoff

Applying models to developed agricultural regions remains a difficult problem because there are no existing modeling codes that represent both the complex physics of hydrology and anthropogenic manipulations water distribution consumption. We apply an integrated groundwater – surface hydrologic river operations model irrigated valley in northwestern Nevada/northern California, United States evaluate impacts climate change on snow-fed systems use conjunctively. explicitly individual rights within allow code diversions response earlier snowmelt runoff availability. Historically under-used supplemental dynamically activated offset diminished deliveries. The accounts for feedbacks between natural stresses, which is first-of-its-kind assessment rights, more broadly basin operations. Earlier decreases annual deliveries all not just junior owing lack storage upper capable capturing runoff. Conversely, downstream irrigators with access reservoir benefit from flowing past upstream points diversion prior start irrigation season. Despite regional shifts toward greater reliance irrigation, crop consumption (a common surrogate yield) due spatiotemporal changes supply preferentially impact subset growers region.